For the seventh consecutive year, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center are predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season—which extends from June 1 to Nov. 30. According to forecasters, there is a 65% chance of an above-average season, a 25% chance of a near-average season and a 10% chance of a below-average season.
While an average season typically spawns seven hurricanes, forecasters are predicting that as many as 10 hurricanes with sustained winds of 74 mph or more could form in 2022. Of the predicted hurricanes, between three and six storms may reach Category 3, 4 or 5 with sustained winds of 111 mph or more. In addition, the NOAA is estimating that 14 to 21 named storms might develop, including tropical storms containing wind speeds of 39 mph or more.
The NOAA is attributing increased storm activity in 2022 to ongoing La Niña conditions that are likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced West African monsoon—which is known to contribute to strong and long-lasting hurricanes.
The NOAA’s forecast is similar to the Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers’ prediction of 19 named storms during the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. The CSU researchers are predicting 2022 hurricane activity to be about 130% of the average season from 1991-2020; 2021 was about 120% of the average season.
What This Means for You
As hurricane season becomes longer and more intense, it’s important to abide by federal, state and local guidance regarding hurricane safety.
In fact, now is the perfect time to review all your policies (home, liability, umbrella, etc…) with one of LG Risk Management’s property and casualty experts. They’ll look for gaps in your insurance and recommend solutions to ensure you’re properly covered for not only hurricane season but other potential hazards.
For more risk management resources, contact us today.